On the evening of january 5 local time, the iranian government issued a statement saying that iran had abandoned the last limit, the \"limit on the number of centrifuges \", in the fifth phase of its suspension of the iranian nuclear deal.


Therefore, Iran's nuclear program will no longer be subject to any restrictions (including enrichment capacity, percentage of enrichment, volume of concentrate and research and development), and from now on, Iran's nuclear program will continue to advance in accordance with the technical requirements of the plan, and its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency will continue.


As of January 6, Brent crude was up% to US $\/ barrel, US WTI crude was up% to US $\/ barrel, and internal futures were trading at one point, with Shanghai crude prices up%.

广发期货发展研究中心原油研究员李承昊告诉《国际金融报》记者,“在油价上修速度过快的背景下,OPEC 一季度减产积极性很有可能被削弱。因此,在未来一段时间内,市场将见证产油国减产与地缘政治局势的抗衡。”

Li Chenghao, a crude oil researcher at the Guangfa Futures Development Research Center, told the International Financial News:\" In the context of rapid oil price repair, OPEC's enthusiasm for cutting production in the first quarter is likely to be weakened. Therefore, for some time to come, the market will see oil-producing countries cut production against the geopolitical situation.


On Wednesday, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Qasim Suleimani was killed by U.S. air strikes outside Iraq's Baghdad International Airport, Xinhua reported.


The U.S. Defense Department said in a statement that Suleimani was behind previous attacks on U.S. diplomats and military personnel in Iraq and the region, and that he and the \"Al-Quds Brigade\" killed hundreds of U.S. and international coalition troops and wounded thousands. U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered the attack on Mr. Suleimani.


On january 4, local time, mr. trump responded on social media \"twitter\" that if iran attacks americans and american assets, the u.s. would strike 52 iranian targets, including some that are \"vital to iran and iranian culture \".


Experts believe he is a prominent figure in iranian politics and that his death would cast a shadow over the region amid recent deterioration in iraq and further tensions between the united states and iran.


The EU said in a statement on January 5 that it invited Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to the EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, to discuss the situation in the Middle East and matters related to a comprehensive deal on Iran's nuclear issue. The European Commission's Vice-President and High Representative for the EU's Foreign and Security Policy, Josep Borelli Fontarius, spoke to Zarif and called on Iran to avoid an escalation of tensions in the Middle East.


At the time, Saudi oil production capacity was temporarily cut in half, with oil prices soaring by more than 8%. But a few weeks later, Saudi Arabia and the United States quickly resumed production, and oil prices fell back to pre-attack levels.


He said the US military attack hurt Iran's core political, not economic, interests. "Because Suleimani has carried out numerous military missions and had great success in the Middle East, it has great popularity at home.” After the incident, many Iranians took to the streets to mourn Suleimani and protest to the United States.


去年末,油价受OPEC减产和风险偏好回升支撑大幅上涨。2019年12月,OPEC 达成进一步减产的共识,同意在今年1月至3月将减产幅度扩大到170万桶/日,沙特还表示自愿额外减产40万桶/日。

Late last year, oil prices were buoyed by OPEC cuts and a pick-up in risk appetite. In December 2019, OPEC reached a consensus to cut further production, agreeing to expand the cut to 1.7 million bpd from January to March this year, and Saudi Arabia said it would voluntarily cut an additional 400,000 bpd.


In addition, the overhaul of FPSO in the first and second quarter of this year could lead to less-than-expected growth in Brazil's crude oil production, and the oil fields in Norway and Guyana have already started production ahead of schedule. Li believes that the speed of market tightening will help oil prices continue to repair.


It is worth noting that, as the price of crude oil rose, dubai, oman, tapis, minas, duri, daqing, victory and other major spot markets are also maintaining a strong upward trend, the margin of volatility is relatively small.


The death of Suleimani has pushed the US-Iranian crisis to unprecedented heights. Looking ahead, mr lee believes oil prices will be particularly sensitive to events, and that risk premiums will further boost the lid drive.


In general, crude oil, gold and stock markets are less relevant in the medium to long term, so many investors use this feature to reduce portfolio volatility. In the short term, if events affect the global economy, political stability, and will affect the supply of crude oil, there will be short-term trading opportunities for gold and oil prices, and price correlation will increase.


In mr li's view, supply and demand in the oil market are not substantially disrupted, and the rapid rise in oil prices is largely due to concerns about further deterioration, which is unlikely to dissipate entirely in the short term.

“在油价上修速度过快的背景下,OPEC 一季度减产积极性很有可能被削弱。因此,在未来一段时间内,市场将见证产油国减产与地缘政治局势的抗衡。”李承昊说。

Against the backdrop of rapid oil price repairs, OPEC's first-quarter production cuts are likely to be dented. Therefore, for some time to come, the market will see oil-producing countries cut production against the geopolitical situation. said Li Chenghao.